PETALING JAYA,Nov 13: Bank Negara Malaysia says it does not expect the conditional movement control order (CMCO) to impact the economy as badly as the initial MCO, and that it will recover in 2021 as projected.
Presenting BNM’s Quarterly Bulletin today, governor Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus said while the CMCO imposed in most states could be a “speed bump”, the economy is not expected to be as badly affected as when it was during the MCO.
“The CMCO isn’t as strict as the previous MCO. Economic activity is continuing and not stopping, hence while the CMCO will affect the growth momentum in the final quarter, the impact will be less severe,” she said.
Nor Shamsiah said that in line with projections from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, BNM is still confident in its projection of 6.5% to 7.5% growth in 2021.
Consumer behaviour has been encouraging, she said, citing the estimated RM3 million spent online during the 11.11 Day sales on Wednesday, which tripled the usual daily value of transactions.
“This tells us two things: One, the digital retail revolution is gaining momentum, and two, this suggests that people are still spending.”
She said, however, there were still downside risks to the current positive forecasts, such as the unpredictable course of the pandemic, the prolonged international border closures and travel aversion, as well as lower than expected recovery in the labour market.
“We are monitoring all these developments and all incoming data to evaluate the evolving risks to our economy,” she said.